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Thinking in Second-Order Effects: The AI Investment Playbook
The chip manufacturers are winning today. But who wins tomorrow?
Oct 24
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1% IRR Project
2
2
Terminal State vs. Intrinsic Value
“… it is not enough to think problems forward. You must also think in reverse, much like the rustic who wanted to know where he was going to die so that…
Oct 9
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1% IRR Project
1
September 2025
The 1% IRR of Writing
“I take hundreds of shots in a single workout. It’s about muscle memory and consistency.” — Stephen Curry
Sep 29
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1% IRR Project
1
August 2025
Pathway v 3.0
“The big money is not in the buying and selling, it’s in the waiting.” - Charlie Munger
Aug 26
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1% IRR Project
Looking Down Before Looking Up – Part 2
This is a companion piece to "Look Down Before Looking Up - Part 1." In part 1, we explored that a significant proportion of stocks have negative…
Aug 26
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1% IRR Project
Look Down Before You Look Up – Part 1
In 1985, Warren Buffett made his television debut on PBS’s “Adam Smith’s Money World.” The first words he uttered during a humble…
Aug 26
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1% IRR Project
What is Signal? What is Noise? (Part 1)
Plus the greatest Noise in the Universe
Aug 14
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1% IRR Project
1
Compounding Part 1
Making it the Default Calculation in a Linear World
Aug 14
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1% IRR Project
The 1% IRR of Writing
“I take hundreds of shots in a single workout. It’s about muscle memory and consistency.” — Stephen Curry
Aug 2
•
1% IRR Project
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